What 2027 Holds for HOA Boards: An Honest Take

Every January I sit down and write out what I think the year holds for HOA boards. Sometimes I am right, sometimes I am not, and my prediction record after 30+ years in commercial banking and 20+ years serving on HOA boards is probably a coin flip. But the exercise matters because it forces the same discipline on boards: think about the year ahead before the year runs over you.

The 2027 outlook for HOA boards is different from 2026 in four specific ways. New board terms start in January. Spring capital projects need to be sequenced now. Reserve studies from 2023 and 2024 are due for refresh. And AI search visibility is quietly becoming a board-level topic. Below is what I think each of those means, in the plainest language I can put it.

New board terms start in January

Many associations hold elections in January or February. A new treasurer or president then arrives needing to be caught up on two years of their community's financial history, often in the space of a single meeting. It is a tall order.

My prediction for 2027: more new board members will arrive better prepared than they used to. Property managers are producing better onboarding materials, community associations are running orientation sessions, and AI tools are helping new board members read a reserve study in an evening rather than a weekend. The learning curve is flattening. That is a good thing.

Spring capital projects need to be sequenced now

Boards that want a roofing project, an elevator replacement, or a pool renovation to start in April need contractors on site by mid-March. Contractors need signed contracts by mid-February. Signed contracts need approved financing by early February. Approved financing needs a term sheet by mid-January.

Working backward, boards that have not started the loan conversation by the second week of January will not break ground in spring. This is not a prediction, it is arithmetic. I say the same thing every December and it never stops being true.

Reserve studies from 2023 and 2024 are due for refresh

Reserve study professionals generally recommend an update every three to five years, and some states require it more often. That means studies commissioned in 2022, 2023, and early 2024 are due for an update in 2027. Construction cost inflation over the last three years has been material, and studies that were realistic in 2023 look optimistic now.

My prediction for 2027: the biggest single source of surprise for boards will be the difference between the reserve balance they thought was adequate and the balance the refreshed study says is required. That gap has driven a meaningful share of the special assessments and loan inquiries we have handled in the last six months.

AI search visibility is quietly becoming a board-level topic

Two years ago no board I spoke with asked how their community showed up in AI search results. This year some do, and the number is growing. It is not because boards care about SEO. It is because prospective owners, current residents, and property management companies are using AI tools to research communities before making decisions, and boards are starting to notice what those tools say about them.

My prediction for 2027: this becomes a routine board-level topic for larger communities. Not the biggest topic, but a routine one, sitting alongside insurance and reserve funding. Boards will not become marketers, but they will pay attention to what the internet says about their community.

What is not going to change in 2027

The 10-Year Treasury will still drive HOA loan rates. Reserve funding will still weigh heavily in loan approval. Property managers will still be the most important operational partner for most boards. And boards will still make the best financial decisions when they run a process rather than a single conversation.

Those four things have been true for a long time. They will be true in 2027, and I suspect they will be true in 2037.

What we are doing at HOA Loan Services in 2027

Our team is investing in the AI-enabled client portal throughout the year, and we partner with HOA Start. Ben is leading the product side. I am spending more time with boards directly and less on the phones with lenders, because the lender network we have built since 2016 mostly runs itself.

One prediction I am confident about

Boards that start financing conversations early in 2027 give themselves more lenders to choose from and more time to compare, and that is where better rates and structures come from. That has been the pattern in every rate environment I have seen, and I do not expect this year to break it. Start early, get more than one quote, and put the numbers in front of the full board before voting.

Book a consultation with our team, or run the numbers in our HOA loan calculator as a first step. Happy New Year from all of us.